Signs That Asia’s Ocean Freight Peak Seasons May Be Moving Apart
This year, Asia–Europe’s peak began unusually early, getting underway from mid-May as importers brought orders forward ahead of anticipated cost increases and potential supply chain disruption. Volumes continued rising into July but have since softened, signalling that the early peak is winding down.
However, the anticipated decline in Asia–North America demand has yet to materialise to the same extent. In some cases, rates are continuing to rise, with the strongest pressure currently affecting services to the US East Coast.
Tariff uncertainty appears to be one reason for the extended peak. Some American importers initially accelerated orders before substantial tariff increases were expected to take effect. When the heaviest increases did not materialise, businesses that had delayed purchasing decisions began returning to the market, creating overlapping waves of demand. US consumer spending has also remained more resilient than anticipated, supporting continued import volumes.
At the same time, carrier capacity reductions and blank sailings have tightened space across transpacific services. Pressure is particularly acute on East Coast routes, where carriers are carefully managing available capacity.
The developing situation at the Panama Canal is adding another complication. El Niño-related dry weather has reduced rainfall and placed pressure on water levels, prompting restrictions on daily vessel transits. Carriers have already introduced surcharges on some services, while further restrictions could affect capacity and schedules in the coming weeks.
APGL continues to monitor global ocean freight conditions closely and recommends that customers allow additional booking time, particularly for shipments from Asia to the US East Coast.
